Objective: Rapid population growth, concentration of human activities, and unsustainable patterns of resource consumption have disrupted the balance between the ecological carrying capacity of land and the footprint of human activities. In this context, metropolitan regions, as major centers of pressure on natural resources, are increasingly confronted with ecological deficits. This study aims to assess and spatially map the status of ecological balance or imbalance in Tehran Province. To this end, by employing ecological footprint and biocapacity indicators and using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the ecological balance or deficit at the county level in Tehran Province is examined. Method: The research is based on the classical calculation framework proposed by Wackernagel and Rees. It analyzes annual consumption data of energy carriers, transportation fuel use, and per capita food consumption to estimate ecological footprint and biocapacity. Results: The findings indicate that Tehran Province, as a whole, is experiencing a severe ecological deficit, and none of its counties exhibit a positive ecological balance. Excessive population concentration beyond carrying capacity, high levels of energy consumption, reduction of biologically productive lands, and increasing dependence on supporting regions are among the main factors intensifying this condition. Spatial analysis of ecological footprint and balance reveals a highly uneven distribution pattern, with the most intense deficits observed in the central core of the province, while northern and northeastern mountainous counties show relatively lower values. Energy and transportation components account for the largest share of the ecological deficit. Conclusions: This spatial pattern represents a structural gap between consumption patterns and the biocapacity of the land, giving rise to a set of intertwined environmental, spatial, and social crises at the regional scale. Water resource depletion and land subsidence, air pollution, declining quality of life, and reduced urban livability can be regarded as cumulative consequences of this ecological deficit. These outcomes are fundamentally rooted in the high intensity of energy, food, and transportation consumption and their spatial concentration in the central core of the province. The results of this study can serve as a basis for environmental policymaking, spatial planning, and the formulation of sustainable development strategies at regional and metropolitan scales.
Nedae Tousi S, Jabbarnejad M, Rajab Kordi S. Spatial mapping of ecological deficit and imbalance in Tehran province. Natural Disasters 2025; 1 (2) :3-22 URL: http://disaster.ndri.ac.ir/article-1-51-en.html