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Prioritization of oil and gas facilities in urban areas using a hybrid risk assessment approach
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Yasaman Ahesteh   , Fereshteh Aslani * |
| Department of Landscape Architecture and Reconstruction, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. |
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Abstract: (50 Views) |
Objective: This study aims to develop an efficient, rapid, and practical method for prioritizing oil and gas facilities in urban areas to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience against natural and human-induced hazards. The proposed four-stage framework enables accurate, swift risk assessment to facilitate effective decision-making in crisis management, urban planning, and the improvement of safety policies in the oil and gas industry.
Method: The proposed framework consists of four stages: 1) Identification of the type and quantity of hazardous materials in facilities through technical documents and field visits, 2) Analysis of past incidents using reliable reports, 3) Qualitative survey of 10 experts with over 15 years of experience, and 4) Simulation of critical scenarios using specialized PHAST software. This method combines retrospective (incident analysis) and prospective (scenario simulation) approaches. A case study was conducted on three facilities in Tehran's District 5, including two gas pressure-reduction stations (TBS) and one oil storage depot.
Results: The first stage revealed that the oil depot, storing 80,000 liters of gasoline with a low flash point, poses a higher risk than natural gas (5,000 cubic meters daily) at TBS stations. The second stage's analysis of past incidents indicated that oil depot accidents, due to thermal radiation and environmental impacts, have broader effects on urban areas. In contrast, gas station incidents are primarily confined to the facility itself. The third-stage expert survey showed that 83.75% of responses rated the oil depot as more hazardous due to the severity and extent of its consequences. The fourth stage's PHAST simulations confirmed that a gasoline tank explosion at the oil depot (with a 200-meter exclusion zone and a 400-meter heat radius) has a greater destructive impact than an explosion at a TBS station (80-meter exclusion zone and heat radius).
Conclusion: The oil depot, due to the type of materials, high storage volume, and potential for critical scenarios, requires a higher priority for safety measures. The proposed method, as a complement to HSE standards, helps optimize resource allocation to reduce risks and enhance the resilience of energy infrastructure against multiple threats, such as earthquakes, floods, and external attacks.
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| Keywords: Risk prioritization, Oil and gas facilities, PHAST simulation, Expert survey, Vulnerability reduction, Urban resilience. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1380 kb]
(25 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/08/30 | Accepted: 2025/09/21 | Published: 2025/09/21
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